Blockade live — BTC's floor on trial
The blockade is live. BTC's last real floor is on the grill.
US military blockade of Iranian ports: active. BTC is at $70,784, flat after eating Sunday's -3.49% flush. Yesterday's $71,500 support broke on the close — $70,500 is the only floor left today.
TODAY'S BOARD
BTC $70,784 — $71,500 broke — Spring floor $70,500 is the line
Oil Risk — $102.75 Brent — $110 is the stagflation trigger — blockade premium building
Macro Signal — F&G 12— Extreme Fear for 61 straight days while BTC holds $70K+
TODAY'S JOB
One dish on the menu today: does $70,500 hold on the daily close?
Market Snapshot
BTC: $70,784 (-0.45%) | $71,500 support broke on Apr 12 close; Spring floor $70,500 now being tested
ETH: $2,189 (-0.43%) | $2,200 role reversal dead; $2,150 holding — two sessions below sealed it
Fear & Greed: 12 (Extreme Fear) ← 13 (Apr 12) — Down a point while BTC holds $70K — 61-day Wall of Worry
Levels at a Glance
BTC Daily tape: -0.45% (O $73,568 | H $73,609 | L $70,767 | C $71,106)
Support: $70,500 — Spring floor. Today's low: $70,617. Margin: $117. | Resistance: $71,500 — former support, now a ceiling | Bias: Neutral
ETH Daily tape: -0.43% (O $2,310.21 | H $2,311.40 | L $2,180.86 | C $2,198.92)
Support: $2,150 — promoted from base after $2,200 failed | Resistance: $2,200 — failed role reversal back to ceiling | Bias: Neutral
Core Setup — Blockade Day One: The Market Already Ate It
Islamabad talks collapsed, Trump posted warnings, Iran threatened retaliation — and BTC opened Monday flat. The April 12 session was the digest (-3.49%). The blockade was telegraphed; price already processed most of it.
The actual risk is the oil feedback loop. Brent at $102.75, CPI at 3.3% YoY (up from 2.4%) — oil's fingerprints all over it. If oil holds above $110, 4.0%+ CPI risk opens up, the Fed stays frozen, risk ceiling drops. Monday's ETF flow data is the first real institutional read on whether the $789M weekly inflow pace holds.
🔑 Quick Hit
MACRO — CPI 3.3% YoY: The Stagflation Transmission | March CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% — oil-driven. Every $10 Brent above $100 adds ~0.4% CPI pressure. The blockade is live. The math isn't friendly.
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NFA as always — Stay Fed. 🦞
Starving Chartist · Daily Dose · Free · April 13, 2026
